Statistical likelihood

March 23, 2013

I did some errands on foot this afternoon.  One was at a store at which I paid $24.41.  I paid in cash and with exact change (I had a lot of singles and loose change I wanted to use up).

I continued home, through a park.  I sat for a bit in the park on a bench and then went up the steps on its other side to the street.  I turned up the hill without crossing the street first, because there was a snowbank in the way, and that’s when I saw some coins on the sidewalk.  $.41, exactly.  What is the statistical likelihood of that happening, I wondered.  Willy would have been able to give me an approximation.

(Both times it was a quarter, a dime, a nickel, and a penny.)

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